SOXX SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$503.84

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$600.64

Bear 68%

$424.29

Bull 68%

$890.95

68% Range Width

77.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $423.15 $446.26 $470.01 $496.28 $524.56 $554.11 $587.39
2026-08-16 $390.85 $423.88 $459.13 $499.67 $545.15 $594.78 $653.26
2026-08-23 $367.34 $406.38 $449.17 $499.81 $558.41 $624.45 $705.06
2026-08-30 $343.28 $385.56 $432.88 $490.13 $558.00 $636.51 $735.10
2026-09-06 $332.95 $379.21 $431.97 $497.13 $576.18 $669.91 $790.90
2026-09-13 $323.45 $372.90 $430.28 $502.45 $591.82 $700.22 $843.75
2026-09-20 $319.53 $372.74 $435.48 $515.83 $617.37 $743.32 $914.43
2026-09-27 $314.33 $370.57 $437.85 $525.44 $638.20 $781.01 $979.77
2026-10-04 $308.81 $367.59 $438.87 $533.07 $656.49 $815.89 $1,042.88
2026-10-11 $304.80 $366.20 $441.61 $542.76 $677.55 $855.05 $1,113.68
2026-10-18 $297.66 $360.48 $438.52 $544.53 $687.92 $880.01 $1,165.72
2026-10-25 $289.80 $353.50 $433.45 $543.31 $693.97 $899.02 $1,209.90
2026-11-01 $282.27 $346.84 $428.70 $542.54 $700.86 $919.89 $1,258.69
2026-11-08 $277.31 $343.33 $427.91 $547.01 $715.10 $951.73 $1,325.66
2026-11-15 $271.05 $337.83 $424.23 $547.23 $723.18 $974.83 $1,380.42
2026-11-22 $260.95 $326.91 $412.87 $536.31 $714.70 $972.99 $1,395.77
2026-11-29 $258.40 $325.99 $414.95 $544.21 $733.70 $1,012.82 $1,479.70
2026-12-06 $255.32 $324.22 $415.75 $550.22 $750.03 $1,049.23 $1,560.31
2026-12-13 $255.57 $326.94 $422.77 $565.34 $780.51 $1,108.87 $1,683.70
2026-12-20 $254.36 $327.57 $426.83 $576.20 $804.89 $1,160.08 $1,796.36
2026-12-27 $252.47 $327.18 $429.37 $584.85 $826.13 $1,207.22 $1,905.25
2027-01-03 $251.40 $327.86 $433.42 $595.82 $851.39 $1,262.18 $2,032.41
2027-01-10 $247.61 $324.58 $431.63 $597.83 $862.38 $1,293.78 $2,118.59
2027-01-17 $242.97 $319.96 $427.75 $596.44 $867.76 $1,316.00 $2,188.39
2027-01-24 $238.44 $315.49 $424.11 $595.57 $874.33 $1,341.28 $2,267.58
2027-01-31 $235.76 $313.64 $424.29 $600.64 $890.95 $1,385.09 $2,387.32

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.