XLC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$108.67

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$116.00

Bear 68%

$99.67

Bull 68%

$135.82

68% Range Width

31.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $101.25 $103.83 $106.38 $109.09 $111.89 $114.69 $117.71
2026-08-16 $97.65 $101.48 $105.34 $109.50 $113.87 $118.32 $123.20
2026-08-23 $94.97 $99.64 $104.38 $109.56 $115.07 $120.75 $127.07
2026-08-30 $92.06 $97.32 $102.72 $108.68 $115.08 $121.75 $129.23
2026-09-06 $90.15 $95.94 $101.94 $108.61 $115.83 $123.43 $132.04
2026-09-13 $88.79 $95.07 $101.61 $108.94 $116.96 $125.45 $135.16
2026-09-20 $88.02 $94.77 $101.85 $109.85 $118.66 $128.07 $138.91
2026-09-27 $87.32 $94.50 $102.08 $110.71 $120.27 $130.56 $142.50
2026-10-04 $86.21 $93.74 $101.74 $110.90 $121.11 $132.17 $145.11
2026-10-11 $85.73 $93.64 $102.10 $111.84 $122.77 $134.69 $148.72
2026-10-18 $84.83 $93.06 $101.90 $112.12 $123.67 $136.34 $151.34
2026-10-25 $83.75 $92.24 $101.39 $112.05 $124.15 $137.49 $153.39
2026-11-01 $82.85 $91.62 $101.13 $112.25 $124.95 $139.04 $155.94
2026-11-08 $82.16 $91.21 $101.08 $112.69 $126.01 $140.89 $158.84
2026-11-15 $81.26 $90.55 $100.73 $112.75 $126.64 $142.22 $161.13
2026-11-22 $79.76 $89.18 $99.54 $111.84 $126.10 $142.19 $161.83
2026-11-29 $78.86 $88.47 $99.10 $111.76 $126.52 $143.26 $163.79
2026-12-06 $78.27 $88.11 $99.04 $112.12 $127.43 $144.89 $166.42
2026-12-13 $78.09 $88.21 $99.49 $113.06 $129.03 $147.32 $170.02
2026-12-20 $77.89 $88.27 $99.90 $113.94 $130.55 $149.68 $173.54
2026-12-27 $77.27 $87.84 $99.72 $114.14 $131.26 $151.07 $175.90
2027-01-03 $77.16 $87.99 $100.22 $115.12 $132.89 $153.56 $179.61
2027-01-10 $76.65 $87.66 $100.14 $115.41 $133.71 $155.07 $182.14
2027-01-17 $75.93 $87.09 $99.77 $115.34 $134.07 $156.04 $184.00
2027-01-24 $75.36 $86.69 $99.61 $115.54 $134.79 $157.48 $186.49
2027-01-31 $74.95 $86.47 $99.67 $116.00 $135.82 $159.28 $189.45

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.