XLI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$182.85

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$199.87

Bear 68%

$176.65

Bull 68%

$226.14

68% Range Width

24.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $172.84 $176.48 $180.05 $183.79 $187.62 $191.41 $195.44
2026-08-16 $167.81 $173.17 $178.45 $184.07 $189.86 $195.65 $201.89
2026-08-23 $164.60 $171.13 $177.64 $184.59 $191.82 $199.10 $207.00
2026-08-30 $160.84 $168.29 $175.75 $183.78 $192.17 $200.68 $209.97
2026-09-06 $158.91 $167.20 $175.54 $184.56 $194.05 $203.72 $214.33
2026-09-13 $157.55 $166.60 $175.74 $185.69 $196.20 $206.97 $218.84
2026-09-20 $156.85 $166.62 $176.54 $187.38 $198.88 $210.72 $223.82
2026-09-27 $156.62 $167.08 $177.76 $189.46 $201.94 $214.83 $229.16
2026-10-04 $155.65 $166.72 $178.05 $190.53 $203.87 $217.72 $233.17
2026-10-11 $154.10 $165.68 $177.58 $190.74 $204.86 $219.56 $236.03
2026-10-18 $152.67 $164.74 $177.18 $190.98 $205.85 $221.38 $238.84
2026-10-25 $151.04 $163.53 $176.46 $190.85 $206.40 $222.71 $241.10
2026-11-01 $149.78 $162.81 $176.35 $191.47 $207.87 $225.14 $244.69
2026-11-08 $148.37 $161.89 $176.00 $191.81 $209.04 $227.23 $247.91
2026-11-15 $147.19 $161.20 $175.86 $192.35 $210.38 $229.49 $251.29
2026-11-22 $145.03 $159.39 $174.48 $191.50 $210.18 $230.05 $252.79
2026-11-29 $144.20 $159.02 $174.63 $192.32 $211.78 $232.56 $256.41
2026-12-06 $143.69 $158.98 $175.14 $193.50 $213.77 $235.48 $260.48
2026-12-13 $143.65 $159.43 $176.18 $195.26 $216.39 $239.09 $265.31
2026-12-20 $143.93 $160.24 $177.60 $197.43 $219.46 $243.19 $270.69
2026-12-27 $143.47 $160.21 $178.07 $198.53 $221.34 $245.98 $274.61
2027-01-03 $142.40 $159.48 $177.75 $198.75 $222.22 $247.65 $277.28
2027-01-10 $141.39 $158.80 $177.48 $199.01 $223.13 $249.34 $279.96
2027-01-17 $140.14 $157.84 $176.87 $198.87 $223.59 $250.51 $282.06
2027-01-24 $139.28 $157.37 $176.89 $199.51 $225.02 $252.89 $285.65
2027-01-31 $138.23 $156.68 $176.65 $199.87 $226.14 $254.91 $288.84

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.