XLK SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$172.69

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$192.07

Bear 68%

$159.12

Bull 68%

$233.24

68% Range Width

38.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $156.91 $161.78 $166.61 $171.77 $177.11 $182.48 $188.29
2026-08-16 $150.44 $157.61 $164.86 $172.74 $181.06 $189.58 $198.98
2026-08-23 $145.44 $154.22 $163.22 $173.13 $183.75 $194.79 $207.14
2026-08-30 $139.87 $149.77 $160.02 $171.45 $183.85 $196.89 $211.66
2026-09-06 $136.62 $147.54 $158.98 $171.85 $185.94 $200.94 $218.11
2026-09-13 $134.43 $146.30 $158.84 $173.08 $188.82 $205.73 $225.28
2026-09-20 $133.39 $146.21 $159.85 $175.48 $192.91 $211.80 $233.85
2026-09-27 $132.18 $145.83 $160.48 $177.38 $196.40 $217.17 $241.62
2026-10-04 $130.63 $145.00 $160.53 $178.58 $199.03 $221.55 $248.28
2026-10-11 $129.88 $145.01 $161.46 $180.73 $202.72 $227.10 $256.28
2026-10-18 $127.86 $143.52 $160.65 $180.83 $204.03 $229.93 $261.14
2026-10-25 $125.99 $142.14 $159.90 $180.96 $205.32 $232.70 $265.93
2026-11-01 $124.02 $140.62 $159.00 $180.92 $206.44 $235.32 $270.60
2026-11-08 $122.90 $140.06 $159.17 $182.09 $208.96 $239.55 $277.20
2026-11-15 $121.41 $139.01 $158.73 $182.53 $210.58 $242.73 $282.55
2026-11-22 $118.64 $136.43 $156.46 $180.75 $209.55 $242.75 $284.12
2026-11-29 $117.31 $135.49 $156.07 $181.17 $211.09 $245.78 $289.29
2026-12-06 $116.57 $135.23 $156.46 $182.48 $213.68 $250.07 $295.99
2026-12-13 $116.61 $135.87 $157.89 $185.03 $217.76 $256.16 $304.93
2026-12-20 $116.36 $136.15 $158.89 $187.06 $221.22 $261.52 $313.02
2026-12-27 $115.70 $135.93 $159.27 $188.33 $223.75 $265.78 $319.78
2027-01-03 $115.65 $136.41 $160.49 $190.61 $227.53 $271.57 $328.51
2027-01-10 $114.41 $135.45 $159.94 $190.73 $228.64 $274.09 $333.17
2027-01-17 $113.23 $134.53 $159.43 $190.87 $229.76 $276.63 $337.86
2027-01-24 $111.92 $133.46 $158.75 $190.82 $230.69 $278.98 $342.42
2027-01-31 $111.34 $133.26 $159.12 $192.07 $233.24 $283.36 $349.58

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.