XLP SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$86.21

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$89.05

Bear 68%

$83.26

Bull 68%

$94.72

68% Range Width

12.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $83.80 $84.74 $85.63 $86.54 $87.45 $88.33 $89.25
2026-08-16 $82.63 $84.08 $85.45 $86.86 $88.26 $89.62 $91.02
2026-08-23 $81.38 $83.23 $84.99 $86.79 $88.57 $90.29 $92.07
2026-08-30 $80.13 $82.32 $84.40 $86.53 $88.63 $90.66 $92.75
2026-09-06 $79.36 $81.85 $84.21 $86.61 $88.99 $91.28 $93.65
2026-09-13 $78.77 $81.52 $84.13 $86.78 $89.41 $91.93 $94.54
2026-09-20 $78.31 $81.30 $84.14 $87.02 $89.87 $92.60 $95.42
2026-09-27 $78.09 $81.31 $84.35 $87.44 $90.49 $93.42 $96.44
2026-10-04 $77.43 $80.87 $84.11 $87.40 $90.64 $93.76 $96.96
2026-10-11 $77.30 $80.92 $84.35 $87.82 $91.24 $94.52 $97.90
2026-10-18 $76.93 $80.74 $84.34 $87.99 $91.58 $95.03 $98.57
2026-10-25 $76.21 $80.21 $83.98 $87.81 $91.57 $95.17 $98.87
2026-11-01 $75.61 $79.80 $83.75 $87.75 $91.68 $95.43 $99.30
2026-11-08 $75.33 $79.71 $83.82 $87.98 $92.06 $95.97 $99.99
2026-11-15 $74.73 $79.28 $83.56 $87.88 $92.12 $96.18 $100.34
2026-11-22 $73.97 $78.70 $83.13 $87.61 $92.01 $96.21 $100.53
2026-11-29 $73.59 $78.48 $83.07 $87.70 $92.24 $96.58 $101.03
2026-12-06 $73.31 $78.36 $83.09 $87.87 $92.55 $97.01 $101.59
2026-12-13 $73.12 $78.32 $83.19 $88.10 $92.91 $97.50 $102.21
2026-12-20 $73.14 $78.49 $83.49 $88.52 $93.46 $98.16 $102.98
2026-12-27 $72.68 $78.17 $83.31 $88.48 $93.54 $98.37 $103.31
2027-01-03 $72.72 $78.35 $83.61 $88.90 $94.08 $99.01 $104.07
2027-01-10 $72.51 $78.27 $83.65 $89.07 $94.37 $99.41 $104.58
2027-01-17 $71.92 $77.83 $83.34 $88.89 $94.31 $99.46 $104.74
2027-01-24 $71.45 $77.51 $83.15 $88.83 $94.37 $99.64 $105.04
2027-01-31 $71.30 $77.49 $83.26 $89.05 $94.72 $100.10 $105.60

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.