XLRE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$45.88

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$47.06

Bear 68%

$42.89

Bull 68%

$50.90

68% Range Width

17.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $44.19 $44.82 $45.43 $46.04 $46.65 $47.23 $47.83
2026-08-16 $43.19 $44.23 $45.20 $46.18 $47.14 $48.06 $49.00
2026-08-23 $42.29 $43.64 $44.90 $46.17 $47.40 $48.57 $49.76
2026-08-30 $41.26 $42.89 $44.40 $45.91 $47.37 $48.75 $50.15
2026-09-06 $40.70 $42.58 $44.30 $46.01 $47.66 $49.21 $50.78
2026-09-13 $40.03 $42.13 $44.05 $45.95 $47.77 $49.48 $51.21
2026-09-20 $39.78 $42.07 $44.15 $46.21 $48.18 $50.02 $51.88
2026-09-27 $39.51 $41.97 $44.21 $46.41 $48.52 $50.48 $52.46
2026-10-04 $39.10 $41.75 $44.14 $46.48 $48.72 $50.80 $52.89
2026-10-11 $38.83 $41.64 $44.17 $46.64 $49.00 $51.18 $53.37
2026-10-18 $38.41 $41.39 $44.06 $46.66 $49.13 $51.42 $53.71
2026-10-25 $37.83 $40.99 $43.81 $46.54 $49.13 $51.52 $53.91
2026-11-01 $37.37 $40.70 $43.66 $46.52 $49.22 $51.71 $54.20
2026-11-08 $37.08 $40.56 $43.65 $46.62 $49.43 $52.02 $54.59
2026-11-15 $36.64 $40.29 $43.51 $46.61 $49.52 $52.20 $54.86
2026-11-22 $35.91 $39.75 $43.12 $46.35 $49.38 $52.16 $54.92
2026-11-29 $35.64 $39.62 $43.11 $46.45 $49.57 $52.43 $55.26
2026-12-06 $35.17 $39.32 $42.94 $46.38 $49.60 $52.55 $55.47
2026-12-13 $35.13 $39.40 $43.11 $46.64 $49.94 $52.95 $55.93
2026-12-20 $35.03 $39.42 $43.23 $46.85 $50.22 $53.30 $56.34
2026-12-27 $34.75 $39.29 $43.21 $46.92 $50.37 $53.52 $56.62
2027-01-03 $34.61 $39.27 $43.28 $47.08 $50.60 $53.81 $56.98
2027-01-10 $34.29 $39.09 $43.21 $47.09 $50.70 $53.98 $57.21
2027-01-17 $33.78 $38.74 $42.98 $46.97 $50.66 $54.02 $57.32
2027-01-24 $33.39 $38.50 $42.86 $46.95 $50.72 $54.15 $57.52
2027-01-31 $33.18 $38.43 $42.89 $47.06 $50.90 $54.39 $57.82

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.