XLU SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$45.60

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$47.67

Bear 68%

$36.27

Bull 68%

$70.95

68% Range Width

72.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $41.41 $42.72 $44.07 $45.55 $47.14 $48.81 $50.69
2026-08-16 $38.99 $40.99 $43.12 $45.58 $48.36 $51.42 $55.10
2026-08-23 $37.40 $39.81 $42.44 $45.58 $49.26 $53.49 $58.83
2026-08-30 $35.91 $38.55 $41.50 $45.10 $49.43 $54.59 $61.36
2026-09-06 $35.10 $37.98 $41.27 $45.35 $50.40 $56.62 $65.14
2026-09-13 $34.42 $37.51 $41.07 $45.60 $51.33 $58.61 $69.03
2026-09-20 $34.09 $37.40 $41.30 $46.33 $52.88 $61.48 $74.39
2026-09-27 $33.59 $37.06 $41.19 $46.63 $53.86 $63.63 $78.97
2026-10-04 $32.93 $36.49 $40.77 $46.48 $54.20 $64.91 $82.35
2026-10-11 $32.34 $35.98 $40.39 $46.35 $54.55 $66.18 $85.88
2026-10-18 $31.95 $35.70 $40.29 $46.56 $55.37 $68.20 $90.93
2026-10-25 $31.51 $35.33 $40.06 $46.59 $55.91 $69.83 $95.54
2026-11-01 $30.82 $34.74 $39.65 $46.56 $56.68 $72.39 $103.52
2026-11-08 $30.12 $34.15 $39.26 $46.60 $57.64 $75.60 $114.49
2026-11-15 $29.47 $33.59 $38.88 $46.60 $58.55 $78.85 $127.25
2026-11-22 $28.71 $32.83 $38.18 $46.10 $58.58 $80.53 $137.14
2026-11-29 $28.27 $32.49 $38.03 $46.36 $59.86 $84.80 $157.63
2026-12-06 $27.88 $32.17 $37.89 $46.62 $61.16 $89.38 $184.55
2026-12-13 $27.67 $32.11 $38.08 $47.39 $63.41 $96.62 $236.62
2026-12-20 $27.34 $31.85 $37.98 $47.70 $64.88 $102.51 $304.05
2026-12-27 $26.89 $31.41 $37.61 $47.54 $65.44 $106.36 $381.82
2027-01-03 $26.47 $31.01 $37.27 $47.40 $66.02 $110.47 $515.40
2027-01-10 $26.19 $30.78 $37.16 $47.63 $67.34 $117.19 $981.82
2027-01-17 $25.86 $30.48 $36.94 $47.66 $68.27 $123.15 $7,785.02
2027-01-24 $25.40 $30.04 $36.60 $47.63 $69.46 $132.10 N/A
2027-01-31 $24.94 $29.60 $36.27 $47.67 $70.95 $144.20 N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.