XLY SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$111.66

Base Path by Jan 31, 2027

$116.23

Bear 68%

$100.71

Bull 68%

$132.84

68% Range Width

27.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-08-09 $104.39 $106.82 $109.17 $111.62 $114.10 $116.53 $119.09
2026-08-16 $100.94 $104.66 $108.29 $112.09 $115.95 $119.76 $123.81
2026-08-23 $97.88 $102.56 $107.15 $111.98 $116.91 $121.81 $127.02
2026-08-30 $94.63 $100.07 $105.43 $111.09 $116.90 $122.68 $128.86
2026-09-06 $92.47 $98.58 $104.61 $111.01 $117.59 $124.16 $131.21
2026-09-13 $90.85 $97.55 $104.19 $111.26 $118.55 $125.85 $133.70
2026-09-20 $89.99 $97.25 $104.46 $112.15 $120.12 $128.11 $136.72
2026-09-27 $89.05 $96.82 $104.56 $112.83 $121.42 $130.05 $139.38
2026-10-04 $87.98 $96.20 $104.42 $113.24 $122.40 $131.63 $141.62
2026-10-11 $87.42 $96.10 $104.79 $114.13 $123.86 $133.68 $144.33
2026-10-18 $85.98 $95.04 $104.13 $113.93 $124.16 $134.51 $145.75
2026-10-25 $84.50 $93.91 $103.38 $113.60 $124.31 $135.15 $146.94
2026-11-01 $83.34 $93.12 $102.98 $113.66 $124.85 $136.21 $148.60
2026-11-08 $82.60 $92.75 $103.02 $114.15 $125.84 $137.73 $150.70
2026-11-15 $81.40 $91.88 $102.50 $114.04 $126.19 $138.56 $152.08
2026-11-22 $79.58 $90.33 $101.25 $113.15 $125.69 $138.49 $152.51
2026-11-29 $78.49 $89.54 $100.79 $113.06 $126.03 $139.28 $153.81
2026-12-06 $77.72 $89.07 $100.65 $113.31 $126.71 $140.43 $155.48
2026-12-13 $77.53 $89.20 $101.15 $114.22 $128.07 $142.27 $157.88
2026-12-20 $77.18 $89.16 $101.44 $114.90 $129.19 $143.86 $159.99
2026-12-27 $76.62 $88.89 $101.48 $115.31 $130.01 $145.11 $161.75
2027-01-03 $76.49 $89.06 $101.99 $116.21 $131.34 $146.91 $164.07
2027-01-10 $75.48 $88.29 $101.48 $116.01 $131.50 $147.46 $165.07
2027-01-17 $74.40 $87.41 $100.85 $115.68 $131.51 $147.84 $165.89
2027-01-24 $73.60 $86.86 $100.58 $115.74 $131.94 $148.68 $167.20
2027-01-31 $73.17 $86.70 $100.71 $116.23 $132.84 $150.01 $169.03

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.